Thursday, September 13, 2012

Thursday Night Pick from Las Vegas: Bears @ Packers

Last Week: 9-7 Season: 9-7
My pick is in bold. Line taken from the sports book at my current lodgings, the fabulous MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada

Bears @ Packers -5.5: Hexagram 63: Setting Right

The stakes are a little higher in a very literal way for me on this game. That is because I am on vacation in Vegas and get to place a wager on the game and watch it in a casino. True, I occasionally make small bets with friends on games, but this is my first real opportunity to put my system into practice. And this is no easy game to call. While the Bears rang up forty on the hapless Colts en route to an opening win, the Packers lost to a very tough 49ers squad at home to match their loss total from the whole 2011 regular season in the first week. 
Week 2 in the NFL season is the time when you have to stand by your overall impressions of teams and not overreact to the first set of results. Even though I picked the Bears and picked against the Pack in Week 1 (both correctly), that doesn't mean I think Chicago is the better team. Even giving the points, I don't think it wise to bet against Green Bay at home, in a night game, coming off a loss, against their biggest rival.
The scenario the I Ching gives for this game is a setting right after early struggles. It is literally translated as fording the river. After a rocky start, albeit against the best defense in football, I expect Aaron Rodgers to lead a big bounce back effort tonight. The Bears defense is pretty good too, but keep in mind that they gave up about the same amount of points to the Colts last week as Green Bay scored on San Francisco. Last year, these two teams played early in the season before Jay Cutler got hurt and their season unravelled, and the Packers still won by ten. New receivers Brandon Marshall and rookie Alshon Jeffery are the biggest difference from that team to this one, but even if they can expose Green Bay's biggest weakness in the secondary, I don't think it will be enough against a motivated Packers team under the lights at home. 

No comments:

Post a Comment