Thursday, November 8, 2012

Thursday Night Football Prognostication

Colts @ Jaguars +3.5

Hexagram 44: Free Interaction

The Colts, winners of four of their last five games coming in, seem to be a mortal lock to win this game. The suspiciously low line and the fact that it is a divisional contest beg for the gambler to pick the home team, but I think the current trends for Thursday Night Football play in the favor of a big Colts victory. The first game of each week has in general tended to be wide open contests. They average just under 40 points per contest for the season, and the game total has gone over 40 in six of the nine games. If this is a similarly open, offensive affair, such conditions no doubt favor the Colts. Jacksonville averages a league low 14.6 points per game, while Indy quarterback Andrew Luck is coming off a rookie record breaking performance. If this game gets to around 40 points like most of the other Thursday night matchups have, the home team will struggle to put up close to half that total. I think something like a 28-13 Colts win seems likely.

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